System Dynamics Modelling and System Analysis Applied in Complex Research Projects - the Case of VALUMICS

VALUMICS is a Horizon 2020 project funded by the European Commission (2017-2021). The project structure is highly integrated and transdisciplinary, building on the expertise of over 30 specialists in various fields of research including knowledge integration through systems analysis and system dynamics modelling, food science, supply chain management, life cycle assessment, logistics, economics and social science. The aim of the project is to analyze the dynamics of food supply- and value chain systems using a structural analysis including system analysis and perform system simulations using system dynamics. The VALUMICS research approach and the project design are explained and it is justified why system analysis is needed to obtain an understanding of the complex connections and interactions of the distinct parts of food systems. Patterns will be recognized and thus causes and effects of complex relations within the selected food supply system and networks will be identified. This understanding of the functioning of the system can in turn be used to identify policy interventions

Applying System Analysis and System Dynamics Modelling In Complex Research Projects - The Case Of VALUMICS

VALUMICS is a Horizon 2020 project funded by the European Commission (2017-2021). The project structure is highly integrated and transdisciplinary, building on the expertise of over 30 specialists in various fields of research including knowledge integration through systems analysis and system dynamics modelling, food science, supply chain management, life cycle assessment, logistics, economics and social science. The aim of the project is to analyze the dynamics of food supply systems using a structural analysis including system analysis and perform system simulations using system dynamics. The VALUMICS research approach and the project design are explained and it is justified why system analysis is needed to obtain an understanding of the complex connections and interactions of the distinct parts of food systems. Patterns will be recognized and thus causes and effects of complex relations within the selected food supply system and networks will be identified. This understanding of the functioning of the system can in turn be used to identify policy interventions

Modeling of Integrated Supply-, Value- and Decision Chains within Food Systems

This paper presents a work in progress on the development of a mental model of a food system using system analysis. The aim is to be able to use this model to create a mathematical simulation model that can be used to identify policy intervention opportunities, specifically focusing on the resilience, integrity and sustainability of food supply networks. The traditional view of food systems as supply chains with a downstream physical flow of products is extended to include the associated upstream flow of money and the decision chains that link these flows. Central to this work is the idea that supply systems are driven by profit and regulated by market dynamics and that these factors generate the underlying feedback structure of the system. Studying the structure of such systems as integrated supply-, value- and decision chains has underscored their complexity and the need for further, more food system specific research

Report on findings on transportation and logistics of selected food value chains:Salmon to fillet case study

• Transportation has significant impact on food costs and the environment. It is a major contributor to carbon emissions, accounting for almost a quarter of the CO2 emissions in the EU, of which 30% is attributed to the food sector. • This deliverable addresses the modelling of food chains’ transportation and logistics. It develops a robust model for policy support, which is applied to a specific case as a worked example. The approach can be used to model the transport and logistics of other food supply chains, given data availability. • The mathematical modelling aims to optimise the cost and effectiveness of logistics operations. It also allows for the integration and consideration of environmental aspects within transportation, processing and distribution operations. • Specifically, the deliverable focuses on the development of a logistics mathematical model using Atlantic salmon as an exemplary example of a globally integrated food supply chain. A Norwegian salmon exporter was engaged to supply data for validating the mathematical model. • The model follows a multi-objective optimization approach that captures the trade-off between total logistics cost and the environment. It has two objectives. Firstly, to minimize total costs associated with transportation, fuel consumption, inventory holding, processing and residuals/waste. Secondly, to reduce CO2 emissions incurred by production at plants, transportation from suppliers to plants, and transportation from plants to customers. • Constraints related to supply, processing capacity, storage capacity, demand, carbon emissions, inventory balancing, transportation capacity, and different modes of transportation between different types of plants and facilities are also consider within the model. • Model development, validation and policy recommendation occurred in four stages: (i) mapping supply chain linkages and product flows, (ii) designing the mathematical model, (iii) data collection for parameters of the model and (iv) model validation and deriving policy recommendation. • Before modeling, consultation with salmon supply chain actors occurred as a first step to map the supply chain linkages. This involved expert interviews with VALUMICS partners. • Based on the mapping of the supply chain, a mathematical model was developed. However, given the complexity of the supply chain and the limited information that can be drawn from a single company which completely covers both the supply and the demand ends of the value chains, the model was divided into two stages (Model N1 and N2) • First it optimises the supply chain network from salmon farms, abattoirs, primary processing plants, secondary processing plants and wholesalers so to meet the demand of the Secondary Processing Plants and Wholesalers for Fresh HOG (Head-on-Gutted) product (Model N1) (farm to wholesaler). • Second, it addresses the supply chain from the secondary processing plants and wholesalers to retailers. The secondary processing plants process HOG into whole fillet, salmon by-products and some residual amount so to meet the demand of retailers (Model N2) (wholesaler to retailer). • An additional model (Model M) allows for the optimisation of the overall supply chain network where, for example, a Company X tries to meet the demand of retailers in different time periods (farm to retailer). • A transportation scenario analysis was also conducted by considering options for various maritime transportation routes from primary processing plant to secondary processing and primary processing plant to various wholesalers. • The results from the three models highlight that it is essential for any company to optimise the overall supply chain network system (from salmon farms to retailers), as the total cost for model M is relatively much lower than the combined total cost of N1 and N2. • Each model also shows that the supply chain network is sensitive to fuel cost and consequently, fuel consumption and distances between actors across the supply chain. • Environmental impact is generally measured by fuel consumption during operations and in the case of food chain, transportation and distribution are important contributors via the use of fuel-based vehicles, sea vessels and/or airplanes. • The scenarios analysis highlights the importance of adopting maritime transportation routes in terms of significantly reducing the total cost, fuel cost and overall carbon emission. Hence shifting certain logistics operations from road to maritime transportation from the perspective of economic and environmental benefits are advocated. • For short to medium distances (vans, trucks, rails and sea vessels) that covers transportation trips to reach airport hubs and big cities, lowering CO2 emissions depends on the emissions ratio (the relative emissions impact of delivery vehicle when compared to personal vehicle – mostly applied in urban logistics) and customer density. • For long distance transport (air), environmental improvement can be mainly achieved through technological development and this has been well supported by research dedicated specifically to address EU aviation industry challenges. • The models are developed for a planning horizon consisting of discrete time periods, aiding the possibility of studying demand and supply uncertainty and its consequences in supply chain decision making. Hence, they help decision makers to identify the changes in a supply chain network when different transportation routes are adopted (for example whether maritime routes can be adopted or not in place of road/rail transportation, to address environmental concerns related to fuel consumption and carbon emissions). • The models are valuable for policy makers in terms of understanding the costs and emissions associated with different food supply chains, as well as the effects of particular policy interventions and market developments (e.g. variation in demand, fuel costs, emission and waste constraints). • They can aid supply chain managers to make decisions regarding the amountof inventory to be kept in different time periods.Aditjandra, P., De, A., M., Gorton, M., Hubbard, C., Pang, G., Mehta, S., Thakur, M., Richardson, M., Bogasson, S., Olafsdottir, G. (2019) Report on findings on transportation and logistics of selected food value chains. VALUMICS "Understanding Food Value Chains and Network Dynamics", funded by European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme GA No 727243. Deliverable: D7.1, Newcastle University, UK, 94 page

Conceptual System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modelling Simulation of Interorganisational Fairness in Food Value Chains: Research Agenda and Case Studies

© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)System dynamics and agent-based simulation modelling approaches have a potential as tools to evaluate the impact of policy related decision making in food value chains. The context is that a food value chain involves flows of multiple products, financial flows and decision making among the food value chain players. Each decision may be viewed from the level of independent actors, each with their own motivations and agenda, but responding to externalities and to the behaviours of other actors. The focus is to show how simulation modelling can be applied to problems such as fairness and power asymmetries in European food value chains by evaluating the outcome of interventions in terms of relevant operational indicators of interorganisational fairness (e.g., profit distribution, market power, bargaining power). The main concepts of system dynamics and agent-based modelling are introduced and the applicability of a hybrid of these methods to food value chains is justified. This approach is outlined as a research agenda, and it is demonstrated how cognitive maps can help in the initial conceptual model building when implemented for specific food value chains studied in the EU Horizon 2020 VALUMICS project. The French wheat to bread chain has many characteristics of food value chains in general and is applied as an example to formulate a model that can be extended to capture the functioning of European FVCs. This work is to be further progressed in a subsequent stream of research for the other food value chain case studies with different governance modes and market organisation, in particular, farmed salmon to fillet, dairy cows to milk and raw tomato to processed tomato.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Food consumption behaviours in Europe:Mapping drivers, trends and pathways towards sustainability

Why do European consumers buy food the way they do? Which key factors drive Europeans’ food consumption patterns and how could they be used to create pathways toward sustainability? The VALUMICS project’s evidence-based report provides insights to what influences consumers the most in their food choices. The report ‘Food consumption behaviours in Europe’ brings together data across various countries, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy. Through in-depth literature research, focus groups and expert consultations, the report provides a better understanding of the status quo, trends, motivations as well as barriers and opportunities towards more sustainable food consumption behaviours in general. The focus is on five product categories: Beef, dairy, salmon, tomatoes and bread. Findings indicate that food consumption behaviours can be largely attributed to price considerations, family eating habits, health concerns or social contexts of consumers. The report highlights that environmental awareness and values play little to no role in the consumption patterns. “Certain changes can only be made by politics, or the EU in this case, which should impose high sustainability limits and standards: for example, banning disposable plastics is a good start. Until certain management practices are allowed, it is difficult to behave more sustainably because everyone else can be more economically competitive” noted one of the experts interviewed for the report. Other actions suggested in the report include fostering stronger communication channels between producers and consumers, with the potential for increasing the resilience of food value chains as well as using behavioural insights to inform strategies and action plans for more sustainable food consumption. The report ’Food consumption behaviours in Europe’ is the first in a series of VALUMICS publications focusing on analysing food consumption. The upcoming reports look into successful interventions for sustainable food behaviour, multi-stakeholder recommendations toward more sustainable food consumption, and food retailer interventions to support this shift.Nicolau, M., Esquivel, L., Schmidt, I., Fedato, C., Leimann, L., Samoggia, A., Monticone, F., Prete, D.M., Ghelfi, R., Saviolidis, M.N., Olafsdottir, G., Sigurdardottir, H., Aubert, P.M., Huber, E., Aditjandra, A., Hubbard, C., De, A., Gorton, M., Čechura, L., Bogason, G.S., Brimont, L., Odene, J. & Schamari, D. Report on (2021) Food consumption behaviours in Europe. Mapping drivers, trends and pathways towards sustainability. VALUMICS "Understanding Food Value Chains and Network Dynamics", funded by European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme GA No 727243. Deliverable: D6.1, CSCP, Germany, 87 pages

Modelling fairness in Food Value Chains: Developing quantitative indicators

Eu Conference on modelling for policy support, Brussels, Belgium, 26 November 2019To provide tools and approaches to enable decision makers in food value chains to evaluate the impact of strategic and operational policies aimed at enhancing fairness, integrity, resilience in future scenarios of sustainable food value chains (FVCs). Fairness in food value chains (FVCs) is topical and policy-relevant. Thus there is value in exploring its dynamics through simulation modeling.European Commission Horizon 20202020-11-11 JG: PowerPoint converted and replaced with PDF with author's permissio

Criteria for temperature alerts in cod supply chains

Purpose of this paper Wireless Sensor Network technologies are now available to implement real time temperature monitoring systems in food supply chains. The aim of this paper is to examine different types of methods and criteria to establish alerts in decision support systems in perishable food supply chains. Design/methodology/approach Logistic and temperature mapping was performed in cod supply chains to obtain data to establish criteria for temperature alerts. Data was collected for both ambient temperature and temperature of products packed in Expanded Polystyrene boxes. Findings Alerts based on single criterion for ambient temperature resulted in false alerts when compared to criteria for product temperature. More complex methods that took into account both temperature abuse and the severity of the abuse resulted in more relevant alerts for the chilled cod supply chain. Research limitations/implications The research is based on mapping of cod supply chains with a limited number of iterations. Practical implications The scope of the research is the application of WSN in an actual supply chain of chilled cod transported from Iceland to Europe, which has relevance in assisting management decision making in the supply chain to prevent losses of quality and minimize waste. What is original/value of paper Failure to maintain a low temperature occurs frequently at handover points where alert systems are usually not in place. The theoretical implication of this paper is the development of a conceptual framework for setting up temperature criteria for real time decision support systems in food supply chains

Monitoring of a reverse cement job in a high-temperature geothermal environment

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Cementing operations in wellbores, especially for long casings, are often challenging and prone to deficiencies when not properly planned and executed. While exploring for and exploiting of geothermal resources at temperatures above the critical point of water was attempted in different drilling projects in recent years, the well design, and especially the procedure to run and cement long production casings became a key challenge for drilling engineers. For the first time, a reverse cementing job for a 2.97 km long production casing in a high-temperature geothermal well could be monitored and analyzed using a combination of permanently installed distributed fiber optic and electronic sensors as well as conventional well logging equipment. Data from the permanently installed sensors were used to monitor and evaluate the cementation process as well as the onset of the cement hydration. Based on the data, the understanding of downhole fluid dynamics during cementation could be improved. Our analysis suggests that the cement was diluted during cement placement and partly lost into the formation. These findings can help to better prepare for future drilling ventures under similar downhole conditions.</jats:p&gt